The Katawal issue and a potential grand design

For a republic in transition full of problems it is surprising that so much time has been spent on the issue of the fate of an army chief who has no people-friendly records. The Maoists’ sacking Mr. Katawal has been misinterpreted but the Maoists deserve praise for producing the first significant instance in the history of multiparty system in our country where a political party in the government has presented itself boldly to say that they want to keep their political values which to them stand above being in the government. The situation in the country has however become very volatile and there is a presumably a lot of manipulative activity going on in the political playground. It’s us, the people, who will potentially suffer. So let us hope the Katawal issue is put to rest, lessons are learnt and we all move on- we have bigger problems facing us!

 

It was in principle right to send Katawal off

Much opinion has come from different quarters so let us try to look at the situation objectively. The Maoists-led government, whatever its weaknesses, was an official government formed through an election and there is a way to go about with the government. Recognizing this is fundamental to creating lasting peace with the rule of a law that speaks for the people. Therefore whoever might be sitting on the chairs, it is important that the government as such is respected and that all national institutions listen to the government. The army chief did not do that. He had been recruiting army men while the government wanted this not to happen, he did not accept the decision of the government to not prolong the eight retiring army men and he clearly was playing very much on grounds that have been created by the differences among our political parties. So he was going beyond his rights.

Let us all not forget in saying that it is right to kick Katawal out we are not accusing him without reasons. For if we wanted to then we could start thinking of the things he did against the people when he was the army chief during the king’s rule. But if we discount Mr. Katawal for all his misdeeds then (may we kindly remind him to count these misdeeds himself) saying his bosses made him do that (may we also remind him here that he had all the right to resign on moral grounds if he shared no interest with the then government), we should also hold him responsible for his recent activities questioning popular supremacy by not following governmental orders. So we can agree that Mr. Katawal does not deserve to be the army chief of a country that is preparing itself for the process of writing a historical constitution with the blood of people, many of whom were actually killed under commands of Mr. Katawal, and then we should agree that it was right to send him off.

 

What now?

Several political and non-political consultations and possibly power bargains are undergoing right now. Things will probably get clearer once these consultations come up with the first round of results including what the president thinks of the current situation and whether he actually sticks to his ceremonial role and seals the sacking. Let us hope a clearer picture will hopefully have emerged by the time this article is out.

 

What if Katawal dares to stage a coup?

Katawal has denied accepting the sacking letter (in fact another count of refusal of government authority) and is presumably involved in serious discussions, primarily with army men. There has been speculation that he might try to stage a military coup? Even if that is true it this will not happen just yet for he will most certainly wait for more official words to his sacking. If need arises he might try a military coup as a last-ditch effort to have more power in old age. If a successful coup does happen the political parties would have to come together again (which they will, as they have done in the past against the king) and fight against the regime. But given the international backing that has collected behind Katawal, it would be a matter of shame for his international supporters if he attempted a hardcore military coup. The likelihood of a coup as a part of a grand design (see below) with president Yadav going beyond his constitutinal rights in which Katawal could stay on is however not negligible.

 

Could the Maoists try to grab state power?

If it emerges that the Maoists have to go, one could argue that depending upon the emerging new equations the Maoists might try to capture the state. However this is probably the least likely consequence of the current situation. Staging a state capture would need either a strong penetrance within the state structure or a massive military base. Frankly how long have the Maoists been in power and how much of the bureaucracy could they have actually possessed as of now? Not much, eh? On the military side too the Maoists’ capability has been exposed since they came back to surface politics and we all know the military base they have would not allow them to capture the state right now even if they wished to.

Then there is the issue of international opposition against any attempt by any communist power in the world today to come to power, forget about communist parties capturing the state illegally. In a strategically sensitive country like Nepal which is and will always be an important ground for players interested in world dominance, given Nepal lies between two potential future superpowers India and China, countries with capitalist interests will not fail to act if the Maoists tried to capture the state illegally. Let us not forget that the US still labels the Maoists as a terrorist organisation. Given that Maoists have done no harm whatsoever to the US and given that the Maoists have actually been voted by the people, the failure of the US to remove the terrorist tag from the Maoists is a clear sign of their enmity towards the Maoists (and this is for the sole reason that the Maoists are communists). Not that the  US was overly sympathetic towards us poor Nepalese folks- we all do have a feel for how they treat us, don’t we, especially those lucky ones of us who have experienced the treat of a visa interview at their embassy.

Therefore there is no real reason to believe that the Maoists would possibly try to capture the state power by force. If they did dare this folly that would be them playing with their future existence and we, the freedom-loving people would have a new enemy in them- sooner or later they would fall.

 

Challenges next

Given that the UML has quit the government, it will be very very difficult for the Maoists to stay on power and a UML-Congress coalition with with/without support from other political parties might be on the cards. A Congress-UML government would possibly involve the Oli camp of the UML given that the UML would possibly run a risk of a split if power-hungries in the Oli camp do not get a share in the next UML-involving government. A Congress-UML government cannot be expected do any better than the current government in terms of solving the ethnicity and regionalism-driven (often) armed struggles. Rather the country might face a more serious problem. The Maoists will obviously find it very difficult to swallow it that they were removed from power for a reason that they (as many other Nepali people) find wrong. This might easily be understood by the Maoists as another reason why some problems can only be approached except through an armed struggle and they might be tempted back to guerilla warfare. Hopefully they realize the wish of the Nepalese people and wait to prove themselves in the next elections.

One of the serious problems of the post-election political scene has been the absolute unacceptance of the Maoists and their election victory by the Oli camp of the UML as well as the Congress. This might be a dangerous thing if the next government is to be a Congress-UML government. At this point as a commonplace citizen let us hope the Congress and the OliUML recognize the Maoists as a political entity in the current multiparty parliamentary system and respect them for their election achievements. Acceptance by contemporary parliamentary parties is a key to helping the Maoists (which is a popular political force, whether one likes it or not) learn parliamentary life after such a long underground phase. 

So let us hope that the next government, whoever forms it does not spit fire after fire upon the Maoists and that it recognizes the Maoist PLA and that it takes the PLA integration/rehabilitation issue seriously. In the absence of such seriousness the constitution drafting process will come under real risk and the status quo of anarchy-style, criminal and corrupt system might stay for longer in the country.

 

One more player

Except for our leaders, an ambitious political player from the neighbouring country is gaining invaluable practise on our political playground. He is the honorable Indian Ambassador Shri Rakesh Sood. His personal motifs are clear- he should be having big ambitions back home and a term in Nepal where he can manipulate and use the politics here for interests of his bosses should secure him a ludicrous future. However he should soon realize that his intervention is clearly crossing diplomatic norms.

To the leaders of our country we should like to ask some questions in connection to Sood. Mr. Koirala, Mr. Prachanda, Mr. Khanal, who is this Sood to you? Why do you allow this agent of an administration that plays “Big Brother” to us to interfere in our internal affairs? Are you his puppets? - Dear Leaders, take off your daura-suruwal or suit and show us your true colours.

Are you guys scared of this Sood that he might cause trouble to us, the Nepali people? If so, that is your illusion Mr. Koirala, Mr. Khanal, Mr. Dahal. We have been suffering enough and it can get not much worse, believe us. Lead us in the fight against invasive, interfering diplomacy. Unite for once for us, Mr. Leaders and show us that you are worth the brave Nepali population. How about finding political consensus in filing a complaint against the intrusion of such agents? Let’s ask to be left alone with our internal conflicts and problems and lets solve them ourselves- we need to learn, dear leaders. Anyway why should we believe that an administration under which  fellow poor humans in Bihar or in the slums of Mumbai (or elsewhere, actually everywhere) are suffering can give us the right advice to help our nation into prosperity? A serious word of caution to Sood with national consensus would help other ambitious players from countries remember that we are a souvereign people.

 

A potential granddesign and a silent player?

The difference in opinion among the major political parties in the country regarding the fate of Katawal are not unexpected if we consider that in the short history of multiparty democracy the hunger of power has always dominated political opinions. The immense interest that the South Bloc has exhibited in the Army chief issue is however very intriguing and one cannot help thinking of a possible grand design.

It is easy to see the interest of India in remove the Maoists from the government. If the Maoists come up with popular programs and succeed that would be against Indian political as well as economic interests. First a communist government in Nepal would be the least manipulatable for them. Then it would pose the risk of the re-emergence of communist movements in India. A not very India-friendly Nepalese soil could serve fertile ground for anti-Indian interests of the Pakistanis, Chinese etc. And finally in the greater international community a communist state in the subcontinent would be a matter of shame for Indian democracy.

There might be further gaming going on though. At the expense of not sounding paranoid let us try to explore this. Religious fanaticism and religious politics is very present in India. For the Hindu scene in India (both the radical and the non-radical part), it was a big blow that Nepal was no longer a Hindu state. There are undoubtedly several interest groups in India, including politically mighty ones who would like to see the revival of Nepal as a Hindu state. Now His ex-Majesty Gyanendra has recently been often reported to have been in India holding “personal and social” meetings with central level politicians. If India helped for the revival of Hindu monarchy in Nepal, His Majesty and his sons and grandsons would be eternally grateful towards India and secret pacts might even be signed that will secure India eternal support by the Nepalese government and also unlimited access to use the Nepalese soil for whatever activities. A revival of monarchy in the form of a baby king has actually been claimed to have been agreed in part by Mr. Koirala, if he got to be the prime minister again. It has become increasingly propagandaed in the last months that removing the monarchy was an idea of the Maoists and that the failure of the Maoists in reinstating law and order in the country is a sign that they are a useless bunch. The activities of the Maoists have not helped thereby not only making people apathetic towards the removal of the popularly elected Maoists from power but also making many of them actually not care if the king would be revived. The people living in the peripheral rural Nepal have hardly felt any betterment in their life situation and would not care about a king anyway. As such negative sentiments against the king has been systematically reduced and many interest groups are working actively towards reviving the monarchy such that even the rather neutral sounding ones of yesterday can be heard saying “what difference is this to the king’s rule? This is even worse. At least there was more order in the country, even without popular law”. Would His ex-Majesty come out from his silence and clarify his position please?

If the monarchy were to be revived with whatever pretexts that would be the real step backwards from here on and not only the Maoists but also the younger generations of the other major political parties of the country would feel sad for we all have learnt how much blood, sweat and suffering it takes to remove a stubborn monarch, compared to removing an elected  government.

 

A word to us all

Grand designs might be going on and it might be the coordination of such a task that is keeping Sood moving so much between Nepali political centres and his bosses. It is extremely important for all major political parties to realize that it was unfortunate for them to fall apart on the Army chief issue and to act as quickly as possible to form the next government and proceed towards addressing the major issues of the transition period- namely keeping the transition period short, establishing law and order, solving the issue of army integration, writing a strong people-oriented constitution and holding the next election in time to start afresh towards prosperity for the brave and enduring people of the country. Hopefully Pashupatinath helps us all in these testing times.

raktim.nepali@gmail.com